How a fight for gas has reignited disputes in the eastern Mediterranean

The once treasured beaches of the Mediterranean, emptied by the global outbreak of COVID-19, have now become hosts to naval ships and fighter jets due to the most recent dispute between Greece and Turkey. Although the current decline in diplomacy between the two nations is not new, the ramifications of the conflict may have more importance than ever before.

On August 12, the Turkish frigate Kemal Reis, accompanying a gas and oil exploration vessel into the eastern Mediterranean, collided with a Greek naval ship in what Greece considers its “Exclusive Economic Zone” (EEZ), an area of ocean that lies on the continental shelf of various islands extending 200 nautical miles outward. The United Nations etched the idea of the EEZ into international law in 1982 to define the ownership of oceanic resources, but Turkey claims that Greece’s eastern-most islands rest on the Turkish continental shelf and that they are, therefore, not entitled to independent EEZ’s. The result was the resurfacing of Greek-Turkish tensions and renewed calls from European countries to denounce Turkey. This skirmish, however, is unique. Emboldened by more nationalistic leadership and pressured by the need for energy security, it would be dangerous to underestimate the role Turkey plays in broader European affairs.

After Greece gained its independence from the Ottoman Empire (Turkey’s predecessor) in 1830, the two countries have sparred on a whole host of religious, political, and territorial disputes. In most recent years, these tensions have led to nationalistic growth in Turkey, which can also be attributed to the recent transformation of the Hagia Sophia into a mosque. In response, Greek church bells tolled across the country in protest. Turkey saw this protest as a symbol of continued anti-Turkism that they have perceived from cold European relations in the past years. Turkey has been a candidate for accession to the EU since the mid-1980s. Since then, however, talks have been stalled on numerous occasions. European countries cite that Turkey fails to meet the European standard of liberal democracy, but Turkey maintains that it democratized in the early 2000s and has liberalized many of its domestic policies in hopes of attaining accession talks. Only when the EU stalled on admitting Turkey did they once again start to embrace more nationalistic policies, drifting further away from European democracy. As made evident in the past, Turkey will only become more liberalized when the EU makes their dreams of having a voice in European affairs attainable, and at this point, they are not willing to do so.

The old disputes over religious and political affairs have now given way to the fight for energy independence. As the world continues to fight global Russian influence in the promotion of democracy and world security, the EU will never be able to sever their ties with Russia until they become energy independent. Germany, one of the biggest players in the EU, however, relies on Russia for over one-third of its gas imports. Germany and the EU have less leverage in imposing sanctions on Russia if they rely on them to keep their economy running. Turkey has also seen increased energy independence from Russia. Recently they have fought against the Russian gas line Turkstream 2, which would lead to more pipeline transit fees and steal countries from Turkey’s gas market. Turkey is relying on the production of more gas in the Mediterranean to have a larger share in the energy market. The discovery of new gas would aid Turkey in their dreams of becoming an energy hub between Europe and the Middle East. This is why they have been working more aggressively to discover new sources, even if it means provoking Europe.

Since the conflict this summer, Turkey has continued its gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean. In early December, Turkey threatened war with Greece should they expand their territorial waters by 12 nautical miles. This move is allowed by the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, which was ratified by the EU as law. The EU, therefore, sees the challenge posed by Turkey as a broader European affair, and has promised to impose sanctions. Such sanctions will continue to throw Greek-Turkish relations into a spiral, but may deter further aggravation from Turkey amid grim economic outlooks and further ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic.

With the discovery of new sources of gas both in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea, Turkey would inevitably play a larger role in geopolitics, especially, within the exportation of energy. Turkey has decided to push Russia away in hopes of gaining gas clients in eastern Europe. Meanwhile, the EU has pushed Turkey away because of its increased assertiveness in the region. Turkey could become the key to European independence from Russian energy. This would allow the EU to pursue tougher sanctions on Russia in hopes of more global stability. By isolating Turkey, the EU makes its path to energy independence much more difficult, and the eastern Mediterranean will continue to breed choppy diplomatic relations.

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